During the 2025-2026 school year, all families involved in special education are faced with six challenges that have the potential to negatively impact their child/ren. 

1. Special Education Teacher Shortages

2. Funding Concerns

3. An Increasingly Strained IEP Process

4. The Disruption in Special Education Learning

5. An Absenteeism Crisis

6. The Big Unknown: Who will be responsible for special education in the future? ​

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1. Special Education Teacher Shortages: According to The Children's Guild, attrition of special education teachers is 2.5 times higher than that of general education teachers.  Retiring teachers and limited new teacher entries into the profession will likely lead to schools making unwelcome compromises with the quality of teacher applicants. This will dilute the experience of kids in the classroom, and will increase the chances for issues and conflict to arise.

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2. Funding Concerns: Federal Covid support is expiring, and school personnel face increasing layoffs. Second, special education budgets are increased using a minimum formula of cost of living plus 1%. This year, the outlook is more uncertain, and many districts will be lucky to continue their funding at present levels. Moreover, the increasing cost of special education is not sustainable. Something has to give, and in 2025, the pressure to rein in spending will continue to increase.

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Finally, the K-12 population is decreasing. In Fairfax County VA public schools, enrollment is declining, and projections suggest this will continue.Projections indicate a drop from 180,384 students in the 2024-25 school year to 177,778 by 2029-30. Meanwhile, special education numbers continue to increase, especially in the early learning years, with a 10% increase projected in 2025-26.

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3. The Strained IEP Process: This is becoming increasingly frayed as providing special education is not easy, and schools are feeling the strain. Parents feel overwhelmed and uninformed about the IEP process, and suspect schools hide behind an opaque IEP process to discourage services. Disagreements regarding eligibility for services, the scope and accuracy of evaluations, IEP goals, accommodations, and services, placement, and the commitment of school and teachers will likely be further tested this year, as demand for services grows and resources become tighter.

 

4. The Disruption in Learning: Schools are struggling to recover from COVID's impact, especially in special education, with both learning and behavior negatively impacted. Learning setbacks, increased mental health concerns, and challenges in identifying students with disabilities has resulted in academic regression, and delays, or a failure to identify students needing services, particularly in early childhood. Furthermore, disruptions to transition services, along with staffing shortages and reliance on underqualified teachers, have created additional hurdles.

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5. Absenteeism Crisis:  In a nationally representative sample of children aged 5–17 years, https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhsr/nhsr118.pdf children with ADHD, Autism Spectrum Disorder, and Intellectual Disability were most likely to have had chronic school absenteeism. Many schools have yet to make plans to reverse the destructive impact on special education students, and how best to support them. Post-COVID, students with disabilities increasingly face unique challenges contributing to high absenteeism: social anxiety, academic struggles, bullying, and difficulties accessing accommodations. Schools will likely continue to struggle to close the gap in ensuring that special education students can reach the goals set out for them in their IEP's.

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6. The Big Unknown: There is a national debate around moving major responsibility for IDEA to the states. This could grant states greater flexibility in designing and implementing special education programs. However, this could also lead to reduced federal oversight and weaken protections and services for students with disabilities. Moreover, a shift to state control may lead to less federal funding tied to IDEA requirements. Parents need to watch, as any reduced federal funding could prompt states to decrease their own special education spending, as they might no longer be bound by federal Maintenance of Effort (MOE) requirements.

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Bottom Line Advice For Parents: Stay aware for likely changes in special education during the 2025-26 school year. Also be aware of the negative impact they may have on your child’s special education. Trust your school, but verify everything!

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